Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I obtained right into a dialogue about polar sea ice within the feedback to my put up Where Is The Climate Emergency?. In the method I seen some mysteries.
To begin with, right here’s the Arctic sea ice space report.
Figure 1. Sea ice space anomaly, Arctic
The thriller for me on this report is the last decade from about 1998 to 2008. There’s little or no month-to-month variation within the report over that interval, and the ice space is dropping steadily … adopted by ~ 13 years of very giant month-to-month variations with little general change in ice space. Is this actual? Is it an artifact? Unknown.
Then now we have the Antarctic ice space report …
Figure 2. Antarctic ice space anomaly
Here, the apparent thriller is, simply what the heck occurred round 2015-2017 to trigger the Antarctic ice space to drop so precipitously?
And lastly, placing each poles collectively, we get the next:
Figure 3. Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice areas.
Figure 3 reveals plenty of mysteries.
• There isn’t any general enhance or lower in complete world sea ice for the complete ~ forty-year interval from November 1978 till 2015 or so. This is regardless of growing CO2 and basic gradual world warming. Why?
• Up till 2015 or so, when the Arctic had extra ice space, the Antarctic had much less ice space, and vice versa. Why?
• Around 2015, after forty years of world ice stability, each Arctic and Antarctic ice areas dropped, resulting in a really seen drop in world ice space. Why the drop, and why then and never earlier or later?
• After the drop, the worldwide ice space appears to be beginning to get well … once more, why?
• At the North Pole, there may be an ocean lined with sea ice. At the South Pole, there’s a excessive rocky plateau lined with land ice and surrounded by sea ice. Yet regardless of these completely completely different conditions, the realm of sea ice is nearly precisely the identical at each poles … say what?
Other than saying that equal ice areas on the poles MAY be a results of my speculation that the local weather is a big thermoregulated warmth engine with a number of emergent phenomena that are likely to stabilize the temperatures and equalize the hemispheres, I concern I’ve no solutions to those curious polar questions … all feedback welcome.
I’ll say that I’m overjoyed that the world of local weather incorporates way more mysteries than solutions …
When nothing is for certain, we stay alert, perennially on our toes. It is extra thrilling to not know which bush the rabbit is hiding behind than to behave as if we knew every part.
—Carlos Castaneda, in The Teachings of Don Juan
My greatest to all adventurers on this most marvelous universe,
You Might Have Heard This Before: I can defend my very own phrases. I can’t defend your interpretation of my phrases, notably once I don’t know what you’re referring to. So please, once you remark, quote the precise phrases you might be discussing. Thanks.