Since Black Lives Matter protests gained nationwide prominence following the 2014 police killing of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo., the motion has unfold to a whole lot of cities and cities throughout the United States. Now, a brand new research exhibits police homicides have considerably decreased in most cities the place such protests occurred.
Black Lives Matter (BLM) started when Oakland-based activist Alicia Garza posted a message of protest on Facebook after George Zimmerman, a neighborhood-watch volunteer who adopted and fatally shot 17-year-old Trayvon Martin in Sanford, Fla., was acquitted of homicide in 2013. Patrisse Cullors, one other Oakland neighborhood organizer, started sharing Garza’s message on social media, together with the hashtag #blacklivesmatter. The slogan quickly unfold, constructing right into a largely leaderless motion in opposition to structural racism and police violence. Last 12 months, spurred by a Minneapolis police officer’s killing of George Floyd, tens of millions of individuals demonstrated in a whole lot of BLM protests all through the U.S.
“Black Lives Matter represents a trend that goes beyond the decentralization that existed within the Civil Rights Movement,” says Aldon Morris, a sociologist at Northwestern University who was not concerned within the new research. “The question becomes, ‘Are Black Lives Matter protests having any real effect in terms of generating change?’ The data show very clearly that where you had Black Lives Matter protests, killing of people by the police decreased. It’s inescapable from this study that protest matters—that it can generate change.”
The research, printed in February as an internet preprint merchandise on the Social Science Research Network, is the primary of its sort to measure potential correlation between BLM and police murder numbers. It discovered that municipalities the place BLM protests have been held skilled as a lot as a 20 p.c lower in killings by police, leading to an estimated 300 fewer deaths nationwide in 2014–2019. The prevalence of native protests elevated the probability of police departments adopting body-worn cameras and community-policing initiatives, the research additionally discovered. Many cities with bigger and more-frequent BLM protests skilled higher declines in police homicides.
The research concerned a quantitative analysis method referred to as “difference in differences,” which mimics a managed experiment with observational information. Difference-in-differences research use variation within the timing and placement of a “treatment variable” (similar to BLM protests or police killings) to type information into synthetic management teams and therapy teams; researchers can then evaluate an occasion’s obvious results in numerous settings or time intervals. The new research in contrast police killings in cities that skilled BLM protests with those who didn’t.
“It’s really difficult to measure Black Lives Matter protests and lethal use of force by the police,” notes the research’s writer, Travis Campbell, an economist on the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. This is principally as a result of complete information on police killings is missing; the federal authorities doesn’t monitor cops’ deadly use of pressure, and media and grassroots organizations try and fill the void by way of Freedom of Information Act requests and crowdsourcing efforts.
Aislinn Pulley is a co-founder of Black Lives Matter Chicago, which has compiled a listing of everybody who died by the hands of the Chicago Police Department since 2011. “It’s extraordinarily important to have concrete data of the numbers of incidents that involve police violence of all stripes, from killings, to torture, to being held incommunicado in police stations, to people who died in custody,” she says. “We didn’t have access to that data prior to the movement—and we still have only partial access.”
Because the nationwide image of police homicides stays incomplete, “the big issue is that you may undercount the true number of fatal interactions” with police—particularly in lower-population areas the place media protection could also be missing—Campbell says. To deal with this, he gave higher weight to outcomes from bigger cities, the place he says news stories of police killings and protests doubtless had extra correct estimates of each. He analyzed the connection between protests and police homicides utilizing a number of completely different strategies, and constantly discovered comparable outcomes.
Joscha Legewie, a Harvard sociologist who was not concerned within the research, says the difference-in-differences design is “very well suited” for the form of information Campbell was analyzing. “It’s extremely important [to have] a better understanding of the processes behind this,” he says. “Are these reductions driven by reforms initiated in response to protests? That’s a key area we need to understand to draw more conclusions about policy implications.” Legewie hesitates to just accept the exact estimate of 300 fewer killings, however says the research nonetheless signifies a considerable—and necessary—total pattern and correlation, which needs to be famous. “It’s more important,” he says, “to focus on this possibly substantial decrease in the number of police killings as a result of Black Lives Matter.”
The distinction was vital on this research; it discovered police killings fell by 16.8 p.c on common in municipalities that had BLM protests, in contrast to people who didn’t. When Campbell in contrast municipalities that already had comparable traits in police homicides earlier than BLM started, the estimate rose to 21.1 p.c. The particular mechanisms that could be concerned in such a decline stay unclear. BLM protests might have this impact as a result of they push police departments to undertake reforms similar to bodycams or neighborhood policing, because the research discovered. Another purpose could also be that the protests have an effect on police morale, inflicting officers to undertake a less-aggressive patrolling posture that reduces police-civilian interactions normally. And not all cities skilled declines amid the protests. Police homicides elevated in Minneapolis, Portland, San Francisco and St. Louis throughout the five-year interval Campbell studied.
Representative Cori Bush, a Democrat elected in 2020 to signify the Missouri Congressional District that features St. Louis, labored as a triage nurse and organizer throughout the 2014 protests in Ferguson (which is a part of the St. Louis metropolitan space). “Decreasing police killings still means people are being killed by police,” Bush says. “And here in St. Louis, where the modern movement fighting for Black lives was born, we haven’t seen a decrease at all.” She notes that human rights activist Malcolm X as soon as mentioned progress includes therapeutic historic wrongs. “The fact of the matter is that we need to see structural change, because our current criminal legal system is structurally unable to deliver the progress that Malcolm X outlines.”
Pulley says the Black Lives Matter motion can take some satisfaction in its potential influence on police homicides. “We should use that knowledge to know that the work we’re engaged in—the movement, the advocacy, the organizing—is what we need,” she says. “And that needs to expand and get broader, so we can join much of the rest of the world in having zero police killings. We can get there. That takes continued and persistent organizing.”