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Russia strides into diplomatic void after Myanmar coup

Myanmar’s navy junta marked Armed Forces Day within the capital Naypyidaw with a parade that includes tanks, missiles and a flyover of navy plane, together with Russian-made MiG-29 fight jets.

Seven Asian international locations despatched low-profile delegations to the occasion hosted by coup chief General Min Aung Hlaing final week. But the highest-ranking official to attend was from additional afield: Alexander Fomin, Russia’s deputy defence minister.

Russia is striding into a diplomatic void left by the world’s different main powers, as they deliberate over whether or not — and to what extent — to have interaction with the junta that on February 1 seized energy from Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected authorities. Moscow’s angle has echoes of its 2015 choice to lend navy help to President Bashar al-Assad’s pariah regime in Syria, serving to to show the tide of the civil battle within the dictator’s favour.

“In terms of appearance, yes, it’s a big middle finger to the west: ‘We can do what we want’,” mentioned Alexander Gabuev, chair of the Russia within the Asia-Pacific Program on the Carnegie Moscow Center, of the choice to ship a high official to Naypyidaw. 

As Min Aung Hlaing surveyed his troops final weekend, an estimated 169 individuals had been killed by the regime, together with at the very least 14 kids, a nurse and a Mandalay snack vendor who was shot and burnt alive by troops, in keeping with native media.

The battle has confirmed indicators of broadening into a global one in latest days, as refugees escaping air strikes in an space of japanese Myanmar managed by an ethnic Karen militia military fled into Thailand. Three different minority armed teams mentioned they deliberate to affix what they referred to as the “spring revolution” being fought in Myanmar’s cities if the navy didn’t cease its killing, in keeping with Reuters.

Demonstrators displaying an anti-fascist banner during a protest in Yangon
Protests towards the coup have continued, regardless of an intensifying navy crackdown that has been condemned by a lot of the worldwide group © STRINGER/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

“Myanmar could easily become a failed state within a matter of months, with violent urban unrest, a fast escalation of ethnic-based armed conflicts, and a widespread humanitarian emergency,” mentioned Thant Myint-U, a historian and creator. “The economy is in freefall, imperilling the lives and livelihoods of tens of millions of people.” 

Russia’s choice to deal overtly with a authorities a lot of the world has shunned was opportunistic, pushed largely by the prospect of elevated arms gross sales, analysts mentioned. But Moscow additionally has much less to lose from the worsening civil battle than Myanmar’s Asian neighbours.

“Myanmar is not on Russia’s doorstep, so they don’t have to worry about the fallout, and don’t have to deal with the refugee crisis,” mentioned Hervé Lemahieu, director of the Power and Diplomacy Program on the Lowy Institute, an Australian think-tank. 

Moscow’s ties with Myanmar date to the nation’s former navy regime and continued in the course of the decade of democracy. Russia has been courting nearer political and financial ties with Asian international locations since being focused by western sanctions after Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Fomin has longstanding relationships with Myanmar officers as a consequence of his former job as head of the defence ministry’s military-technical co-operation division. He helped to promote among the Russian {hardware} displayed within the armed forces parade.

Russia is Myanmar’s second-largest provider of weaponry after China, in keeping with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think-tank. Myanmar’s navy is awaiting supply of six Sukhoi Su-20 superior fighter jets ordered in 2019 and the 2 sides signed contracts for a Russian air defence system and a set of tactical surveillance drones in January, in keeping with the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defence think-tank. 

Bar chart of trend-indicator value* (2010-20, $bn) showing top arms exporters to Myanmar

“They see an opening here to increase their market share at the expense of China and others,” Gabuev mentioned. “Even if there is a democratic government in the future, the more you sell now, the more you lock the armed forces into training programmes and additional sales.” 

Moscow’s gambit in Myanmar additionally underscores the disarray and combined messages emanating from the broader worldwide group after the coup. 

The US has been most blunt in denouncing the junta’s seizure of energy, imposing sanctions on high navy officers and their companies. Washington additionally froze a commerce cope with Myanmar this week. Japan, Myanmar’s greatest assist donor, suspended new growth help in what its international minister referred to as a “clear position”. 

However, India and China, Myanmar’s large neighbours, have been extra reserved of their public remarks and despatched representatives to the navy parade. 

Beijing, which had good relations with Aung San Suu Kyi’s authorities, has been notably guarded in its public stance after widespread anti-Chinese sentiment erupted amongst anti-coup protesters.

Beijing’s most forceful remarks got here final month, when the international ministry voiced concern about “the safety of Chinese institutions and personnel” after some garment factories in Yangon had been set alight. 

The junta will probably be in search of new enterprise companions in Russia and elsewhere as extra sanctions are imposed, buyers withdraw and credit score traces dry up. “We are waiting for your businessmen,” Min Aung Hlaing advised the editor of Moskovsky Komsomolets, a Moscow-based newspaper, who was a part of the Russian delegation. 

Moscow, mentioned analysts, has made an early guess on what it believes is the likelier profitable facet. 

“Russia is gambling that the army will prevail,” mentioned Thant Myint-U. “It’s a low-risk gamble as Russia has little to lose if Myanmar descends into civil war, but if the army holds on to power Moscow will have a new friend on the Indian Ocean.” 

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